Alexander W. Beadle

Below are all unclassified publications, divided into my three research areas.

Prediction in World Politics

  • Wicken & Beadle (2024), ‘Hvorfor tallfeste sikkerhetspolitiske prediksjoner – innsikter fra Ukraina-krigen’ [Why quantify predictions about international security? – Insights from the war in Ukraine], Stratagem, 9 August 2024. [English translation coming] [Norwegian article].
  • Wicken & Beadle (2024), ‘Norske eksperters prediksjoner om krigen i Ukraina – hvor godt har de truffet?’ [Assessing the accuracy of Norwegian expert predictions on the war in Ukraine] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2022), Hvor mange ganger skal vi bomme på russiske invasjoner [How many times are we going to miss Russian invasions?], op-ed in Dagens Næringsliv, 4 April 2022. [English translation coming] [Norwegian article].
  • Beadle (2022), ‘Fra lek til alvor: Kan turneringer brukes til å forutsi krig?’ [From games to reality: Can tournaments be used to predict war?], Stratagem, 30 March 2022. [English translation coming] [Norwegian article].
  • Beadle (2022), ‘Arv og miljø: Hva kjennetegner personer som er bedre til å forutsi sikkerhetspolitiske hendelser?’ [Nature and nurture: What characterises individuals who are better at predicting events in world politics?], Stratagem, 23 Februar 2022. [English translation coming] [Norwegian article].
  • Beadle (2022), ‘Prediksjon og presisjon: Hvor godt kan vi forutsi sikkerhetspolitiske hendelser?’ [Prediction and precision: How well can we predict events in world politics?], Stratagem, 24 January 2022. [English translation coming] [Norwegian article].
  • Beadle (2022), ‘Tilleggsdokumentasjon til foreløpige resultater fra FFIs prediksjonsturnering’ [Supplementary material to preliminary results from FFI forecasting tournament] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2021), ‘FFIs prediksjonsturnering – datagrunnlag og foreløpige resultater’ [FFI forecasting tournament – dataset and preliminary results] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2021), ‘Hvordan forbedre treffsikkerheten til prediksjoner av internasjonal politikk? – en litteraturgjennomgang’ [How to improve the accuracy of predictions in international politics? – a literature review] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2021), ‘FFIs prediksjonsturnering – spørsmålskatalog’ [FFI forecasting tournament – question catalogue] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2019), ‘Pinnsvin, rever og kognitive fallgruver i forsvarsdebatten’ [Hedgehogs, foxes, and cognitive pitfalls in debates on defence], Stratagem, 9 June 2019 [English translation coming] [Norwegian article].
  • Beadle (2018), ‘Er du bedre til å forutsi fremtiden enn ekspertene?’ [Are you better at predicting the future than the experts?], forskning.no, 30 September 2017. [English translation coming] [Norwegian article].
  • Beadle (2018), ‘FFIs prediksjonsturnering – idé- og metodebeskrivelse’ [FFI forecasting tournament – idea and method] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2016), ‘Å forske på Forsvaret i fremtiden – muligheter, begrensninger og kognitive fallgruver’ [Military foresight – possibilities, limitations and cognitive pitfalls] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].

Future International Security

  • Beadle (2022), ‘Tre nye strategiske sjokk for norsk forsvarsplanlegging’ [Three new strategic shocks to Norwegian defence planning], commissioned paper for the Norwegian Defence Commision, later published by Forsvarets forum, 6 October 2022. [English translation coming] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2021), ‘Hva trigger mellomstatlig krig? ‒ en historisk gjennomgang med implikasjoner for krigsspill’ [What triggers interstate war? – an historical overview with implications for wargaming], FFI-note.
  • Rjaanes et al. (2020), ‘Teknologiske trender – mulige konsekvenser for Luftforsvaret’ [Technological trends – possible implications for the Norwegian Air Force] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Alme et al. (2020), ‘Globale trender’ [Global trends] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle et al. (2019), ‘Globale trender mot 2040 – et oppdatert fremtidsbilde’ [Global trends out to 2040 – an updated vision of the future] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report]
  • Skjelland et al. (2019), ‘Hvordan styrke forsvaret av Norge? Et innspill til ny langtidsplan’ (2021–2024)’ [How to strengthen the defence of Norway? A contribution to the new long-term plan (2021–2024)] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle (2016), ‘Globale trender mot 2040’ [Global trends out to 2040], FFI-note. [Norwegian report].
  • Beadle & Diesen (2015), ‘Globale trender mot 2040 – implikasjoner for Forsvarets rolle og relevans’ [Global trends out to 2040 – implications for the role and relevance of the Norwegian Armed Forces] (Kjeller: FFI). [English summary] [Norwegian report].

Protection of Civilians

  • Beadle et al. (2019), ‘Assessing protection of civilians in military operations’, in Schilling (ed.),Operations Assessment in Complex Operations (NATO Science and Technology Organization). [English chapter].
  • Beadle & Kjeksrud (2018), ‘The utility of force to protect civilians in UN peace operations’, in Nadin (ed.), The Use of Force in UN Peacekeeping (NY: Routledge), 100–123. [English chapter].
  • ​Keenan & Beadle (2015), ‘Operationalizing Protection of Civilians in NATO Operations’, Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 4(1):55, 1–13. [English article].
  • Beadle (2015), ‘Protection of civilians as a new objective in military operations’, in Norheim-Martinsen & Nyhamar (eds.), International Military Operations in the 21st Century: Global trends and the future of intervention (NY: Routledge), 195–205. [English chapter].
  • Kjeksrud, Beadle & Lindqvist (2016), Protecting Civilians from Violence: A Threat-Based Approach to Protection of Civilians in UN Peace Operations. A joint FFI-NODEFIC publication. [English report].
  • Beadle & Kjeksrud (2014), ‘Military planning and assessment guide for the protection of civilians’ (Kjeller: FFI). [English report].
  • Beadle (2014), ‘Protection of civilians – military planning scenarios and implications’ (Kjeller: FFI). [English report].
  • Våge & Beadle (2014), ‘Assessing protection of civilians in military operations’ (Kjeller: FFI). [English report].
  • Beadle (2013), ‘Kan militærmakt stoppe volden i Syria?’ [Can military force stop the violence in Syria?], op-ed in Aftenposten, 4 September 2013.
  • Beadle (2012), ‘Protecting Civilians While Fighting a War in Somalia – Drawing Lessons from Afghanistan’, NUPI Policy Brief. [English article].
  • Beadle (2011), ‘Finding the ‘utility of force to protect’: towards a theory on protection of civilians’ (Kjeller: FFI). [English report].
  • Beadle (2010), ‘Protection of civilians in theory – a comparison of UN and Nato approa­ches’ (Kjeller: FFI). [English report].