My research covers three areas: prediction in world politics, the future international security environment, and protection of civilians. Across all areas, I focus on how real-world decision-making can be improved. I combine multiple methods, including surveys, statistical analysis, literature reviews, scenario development, experiments, and fieldwork in conflict areas.
Prediction in World Politics
Currently, I research the potential for prediction in world politics: How predictable are concrete events, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, months and years in advance? Whose predictions can we trust the most? Which techniques work?
Inspired by Philip E. Tetlock and Barabara Mellers’ Good Judgment Project (2011–2015), I organised the FFI Forecasting Tournament from 2017 to 2020. I collected half a million forecasts from hundreds of individuals on topics relevant to international security. Unlike previous forecasting tournaments, my research focuses on longer-term predictions for use in national security and defence planning.
At the moment, I am writing several PhD-articles based on the FFI Forecasting Tournament.
FFI Forecasting Tournament
The objective was to measure how accurately the Norwegian academic and military communities were able to predict events of relevance to international security. 450,000 probabilsitic forecasts from 1,300 participants on 240 questions about armed conflicts, election results, economics and technological developments.
All datasets and results will be published at the tournament website: https://forecasting.ffi.no.
Future International Security
In parallel, I research how the future international security environment may actually develop over the next 15–25 years. Since 2014, I have led FFI’s Global Trends research projects. I have been the lead author of FFI’s strategic foresight analyses, which are widely used in Norwegian national security and defence planning processes. I have also written about common cognitive pitfalls when thinking about future war.
Global Trends Out to 2040
The risk of confrontation between states is growing. For Norway, a gradual erosion of the liberal world order will weaken its first line of defence – the rules and principles that protect small states from great powers. As Norway becomes more dependent on allies, the prospects of receiving support, especially from the US, is becoming increasingly uncertain.
A summary of the latest report from 2019 is here.
Illustration: Martin Hvattum/FFI.
Protection of Civilians
Previously, I have researched how military forces can protect civilians in war. Unlike the traditional focus on collateral damage, I focused on how military forces can be used to stop violence from armed actors who deliberately target them. I developed the first theory on which military responses will be most effective against different types of perpetrators. The core idea is that intervening forces must “match” the perpetrators’ stategic rationale and capabilities.
This research was based on case studies, field trips to conflict areas, and experiments in military exercises conducted together with colleagues Dr. Stian Kjeksrud and Col. (ret.) Petter Lindqvist. In Kjeksrud’s recent book, my matching theory was found to provide the best explanation of when UN forces had succeeded in saving lives in Africa since 1999. Our research is currently used in UN and NATO policies and guidelines, and taught in courses at the Norwegian Defence University College.
Typology of threats to civilians
- Genocide (extermination, e.g., Rwanda 1994)
- Ethnic cleansing (expulsion, e.g., Bosnia 1992-95)
- Regime crackdown (repression, e.g., Syria 2011-)
- Post-conflict revenge (revenge for past crimes, e.g., Kosovo post-1999)
- Communal conflict (avenge previous violence and deter further retaliation, e.g., Ituri 1999-03)
- Predatory violence (exploitation to survive or for profit, e.g., LRA 1994-)
- Insurgency (targeting of civilians as a means to undermine other actors, e.g., Taliban 2006-21)
Photo: Alexander W. Beadle.